The state pension triple lock is facing renewed pressure ahead of the Andy Burnham and John Healey's first Budget, with calls for the system to be changed as ministers grapple with rising spending pressures.
The guarantee means the state pension rises each April by whichever is highest out of inflation, average wage growth or 2.5 per cent.
But the future of the triple lock is increasingly being debated as the Government prepares for the Budget on 28 October 2026.
Critics have warned that the policy has significantly increased the generosity and cost of the state pension and creates uncertainty over future public spending.
What is the Triple Lock?
Under the system, the state pension increases each April according to whichever of three measures is highest:
- Inflation – measured by CPI in September of the previous year
- Average wage growth – based on earnings growth between May and July
- 2.5 per cent – the minimum guaranteed increase
The system was introduced by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2010 and first applied to the state pension in 2011.
It was designed to stop the value of the state pension falling behind either the cost of living or the earnings of working people.
Why is the triple lock under pressure?
The cost of maintaining the guarantee is becoming a bigger issue as the number of older people rises and pressure grows on public finances.
The IFS estimates that state pension spending is currently around £154 billion a year and says the triple lock has added substantially to the cost over time.
It says the long-term cost is also difficult to predict because the amount paid depends on whether inflation, wages or the 2.5 per cent floor is highest in each year.
The OECD has also called for reform, saying the triple lock creates fiscal risks and has pushed state pensions ahead of earnings over time.
Meanwhile, the British Chambers of Commerce has called for the system to be changed to an inflation-linked formula, arguing that this could reduce spending pressures and create room for other priorities.
Today's Poll: Would you support scrapping State Pension triple lock (amount its guaranteed to rise by) to pay for universal social care?
NB. This is a vibe question. There are many other routes, options & things money could go to. Yet given a straight choice what's your view?— Martin Lewis (@MartinSLewis) September 28, 2026
But the Government has committed to the triple lock
The pressure comes despite the Government's existing commitment to maintain the triple lock for the duration of this Parliament.
Government documents continue to assume that the policy remains in place, including for future upratings.
That means any change announced in the Budget would represent a significant shift from the existing commitment.
There is also another complication for pensioners: the personal tax allowance has remained frozen while the state pension has increased.
The IFS has highlighted the growing value of the state pension alongside frozen tax thresholds, while the Government has previously said it would ensure someone whose only income is the full new state pension does not become liable for income tax during this Parliament.
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Not every part of the state pension gets the triple lock
The triple lock applies to the basic and new state pensions, rather than every element of state pension income.
Some older pensioners also receive an additional state pension, commonly known as Serps, which is uprated under different rules.
Sir Steve Webb, a former pensions minister, said: "The additional state pension, often called Serps, has always been linked to inflation, whereas the old basic state pension has benefited from a more generous formula since 2011."
This means two pensioners can see different increases in different parts of their state pension income.
With the Budget approaching, the triple lock is therefore becoming an increasingly important issue for millions of pensioners - and for the Government's wider spending plans.
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