THIS election is still a three-horse race, which in itself would never have been predicted a few weeks ago, before the first leaders’ debate.

And while the polls have improved for the Conservatives in the last few days, they are still not doing as well as they were at the start of the campaign.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats may be ahead of Labour in the polls but that does not necessarily translate into seats. And the problem with polls is the assumption they reflect a swing across the country, but we don’t know whether that will happen. It’s hard to predict how they will shake out region-by-region and seat-by-seat.

Another point is that the swing of support towards the Lib Dems is highest among under-35s. But traditionally many of those are not registered to vote and the turn-out among this age group is much lower. So the Lib Dem vote is very volatile.

It’s also interesting that what happened to Gordon Brown in Rochdale (when he was recorded calling voter Gillian Duffy a “bigot”) has not made a huge difference to the polls, so it may be more about how this has affected morale in the Labour camp and Mr Brown has sounded increasingly desperate since it happened. It could mean some Labour voters don’t turn out, but it could also be a storm in a teacup.

As for the outcome, the Conservatives are certainly favourites and, although a hung Parliament is more likely, I don’t think a small overall majority for them is out of the question. If they are clearly the largest party, they might try to make a go of it as a minority government. They are much less likely to offer proportional representation, which the Lib Dems say must be on the table, but I can’t see Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown doing a deal.

So if there is a hung parliament, the more likely scenario is a Lib Dem pact with a Labour party under a new leader.