YORK has been named as one of the country's top property hotspots.

The website propertyforecasts.co.uk is predicting a 60 to 70 per cent rise in property values in the York area over the next five years - one of the biggest increases in the country.

Until recently, it was forecasting an astonishing 100 per cent price rise in one York postcode - YO10 - making it the hottest hotspot in England and Wales.

The postcode includes Fulford, Fishergate, Badger Hill, Heslington, the Hull Road area and the university.

Two other York postcodes also in the top ten were:

YO32, which includes Haxby, Wigginton, Strensall, New Earswick, Huntington and Hopgrove, with a predicted increase of 88 per cent

YO24, which includes Tadcaster Road, Dringhouses, Holgate and Woodthorpe, with a predicted increase of 84 per cent.

The figures have fallen after Land Registry figures for the last quarter of 2005 recently showed a surprising decline in York prices.

But the forecasters are still predicting substantial rises between now and 2011.

For example, they expect a 73.3 per cent increase in detached properties in YO10 3, and 58.1 per cent in detached properties in YO10 5.

In York as a whole, detached properties are predicted to increase fastest, by 67 per cent, with semis rising by 61.8 per cent, terraced homes by 57.2 per cent and flats or maisonettes by 52.0 per cent.

The figures are calculated using more than 180 pieces of economic information, including interest rates, unemployment figures, manufacturing output and Land Registry data.

John Waterhouse, director of Hunters estate agents, said today the 100 per cent figure had seemed "wildly optimistic", while 60 to 70 per cent was at the top end of the possible scale.

He said the Centre for Economic and Business Research was forecasting a 39 per cent increase in property prices nationally over the next ten years and said the York figure was "the most optimistic possible".

The York property market had picked up this year, but it was nothing like the "frantic" situation witnessed two or three years ago, and he expected to see prices rising at about five per cent per annum for the foreseeable future.

Allen Rutter, of Fulford-based Blacks Property Consultants, said he could understand why Fulford was pinpointed for large increases.

He said three factors lay behind the area's strength in the property market - the attractive location, the good secondary school and the university, particularly if the proposed massive expansion went ahead.

Edward Waterson, of Carter Jonas, who is regional spokesman for the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), said he thought prices in York would rise by between three and five per cent per annum over the next few years. "One factor that pushes York along is education," he said.

Factors driving house price boom

WHAT are the factors driving York's booming housing market?

Professor Mark Stephens, assistant director of the centre for housing policy at the University of York, said: "I think there are two sets of explanations for rising house prices. The first are real, tangible factors, like employment growth, population growth and improved transport links."

Prof Stephens said these factors were especially important given a limited housing stock, where a decrease in supply would further drive the prices up.

He said: "The second set of factors is related to expectations. If people expect house prices to go up in an area, they are more likely to buy into that area.

"This pushes prices up, and the expected price increases become self-fulfilling."

He said York's housing market would benefit from the expected expansion of the university, and the prospect of improved transport links with London.

Rising values are major boost to YO10 resident

One resident who recently moved into York's YO10 property hotspot tells Mike Laycock what attracted him to the area

WHEN Pole Przemyslaw Duklas, pictured, and his wife, Julita, started looking for a house in York, they had several aims.

Number one was to buy a property within walking distance of York city centre, where they both work, Przemyslaw as a lecturer at York St John University College, and Julita as a dentist.

"I used to commute 120 kilometres a day in Poland," said Przemyslaw, 40. "It was terrible."

They also wanted somewhere with a garden, away from the noise of the railway lines, and with good schools for their children, Dominik, 13, and Dorothy, six.

They found what they were looking for in the form of a three-bedroom bungalow in the Cemetery Road area, which they bought last August for £232,000.

"It's great," said Przemyslaw. "I don't need to use the car to get to work. You can get into town on a beautiful riverside walk.

"Dorothy goes to St George's Roman Catholic Primary School, which is very friendly, and Dominik goes to All Saints' School.

"It's very quiet, with all the green fields around the university."

He said he had moved to York 18 months ago after Julita saw an advert encouraging Polish dentists to come to Britain.

They had been on holiday to York before, and knew it was a beautiful place to live, but for the first year they rented a property in Heslington before buying the bungalow.

He said the projected rises in property values in the area were "very encouraging for the future", as he and Julita had taken out a huge mortgage to buy their home.

He said: "We are not planning to sell, but we obviously don't want to get a problem with negative equity."

Updated: 09:45 Wednesday, March 01, 2006