I AM at a complete loss to understand the swing to Ukip. At the next General Election in May 2015 there are four realistically possible outcomes. A Conservative majority, a Labour majority, a Coalition of Conservative/Lib Dem or a coalition of Labour/Lib Dem. What is not realistically possible is a Ukip majority.

So let’s analyse the possibles. If Labour win a majority they are committed to staying in Europe. The Lib Dems are also committed to this so whoever forms a coalition with them will have to stay in Europe.

This is why the current Conservative promise of an in/out referendum on Europe has not passed into law – the Lib Dems and Labour combined to defeat the bill. So the Conservatives followed the only route left to them which is to promise a referendum if they win a majority at the next General Election.

Given the groundswell of opinion on Europe I have no doubt that if the Conservatives win a majority they won’t renege on this promise. Net result – the only possible way the Eurosceptics can hope to get an in/out vote on Europe is to hope for a Conservative Government after the next General Election.

So why aren’t Ukip telling their supporters to vote Conservative? Could it be that Nigel Farage and his band of merry men are enjoying being part of the gravy train as MEPs?

Tony Taylor, Grassholme, Woodthorpe, York.