YORK as the next New Orleans: an alarming claim, certainly. But is it also alarmist, as MP Hugh Bayley suggests?

There are obvious geographical differences between this city and the Louisiana port. York is above sea level and situated well inland; the Ouse and the Foss together hardly rival the Mississippi; and there are no great lakes ready to breach neglected levees.

Yet few British cities know as much about floodwater as this one. A series of major floods in the last century finally led to the construction of the Foss Barrier, said to be a state-of-the-art defence system.

It saved York from disaster during the 2000 flood, but only by inches. That was said to be an event that occurs only once in a century. But freak weather, from flash floods in Helmsley to Hurricane Katrina, redraws the record books with ominous regularity.

So Professor John Whitelegg's doomsday scenario, which envisages York devastated by the sort of flooding which kills thousands and leads to the city's abandonment, is not without a chilling note of authenticity.

There is little doubt that Prof Whitelegg, a Green councillor, is out to make political capital from New Orleans' fate. But that does not mean his claims should be dismissed.

Experts like him predicted the Louisiana tragedy and were ignored. York should not be so complacent. These concerns are serious enough to merit proper scrutiny and a detailed response from city leaders.

Updated: 11:20 Monday, October 03, 2005