FLOODING could make York uninhabitable within 30 years unless action is taken to tackle climate change and reduce regional risks, a York University professor warned today.

Professor John Whitelegg, claimed that in a worst-case scenario, there could be New Orleans-style loss of life, and people would have to prepare for an "abandonment" of the city.

"We need to plan for the abandonment of York," he claimed. "York is not tenable. It will flood, and flood irreparably, and there will be loss of life, unless these problems are tackled."

Prof Whitelegg, a professor of sustainable development at the university's Stockholm Environment Institute and a Green councillor, said international action must be taken to address global warming.

But a series of measures was also needed in York and further up the Ouse to reduce the risks, including the re-establishment of boglands in the uplands, which could soak up rainfall like a sponge and reduce flooding downstream.

In York, there should be more trees and grassland and less asphalting and concreting of the land, so that more rainfall could soak away instead of running straight off.

All building should be banned in the flood plain and some areas protected by defences should be sacrificed and allowed to flood to ensure other areas are safe.

Prof Whitelegg revealed that he had issued a warning about the growing risks to America of hurricanes on August 26 - three days before Katrina struck New Orleans.

He said then that America could not avoid the repercussions of global warming, despite refusing to sign up to the Kyoto protocol. He said: "It is subject to extreme weather events and its people will pay the price of hurricanes."

He told the Evening Press today that he had first heard about the possibility of York having to be abandoned from a meteorologist at a conference in York a couple of years ago.

He felt the biggest risk to York would come if there was several days of heavy rainfall, leading to the ground becoming saturated, followed by a sudden, very heavy burst of rainfall, with nowhere for the floodwater to escape and levels in parts of the city rising by 2-3 metres in a matter of hours, with the housebound stranded and most at risk.

But the Environment Agency said today that there were several important differences between York and New Orleans.

Steve Wragg, flood risk management team leader, said York's flood risk came from rising river levels rather than the sea, as it was above tidal levels.

He said that flood defence arrangements in York by the agency and city council were widely considered to be some of the best in the country, as witnessed by the response to the floods of 2000, since which further improvements had been introduced.

He said the agency was seeking to reduce flood risks in York, and would later this autumn be publishing wide-ranging proposals - known as the Ouse Flood Risk Management Strategy - to tackle long-term flooding problems.

York MP Hugh Bayley described the professor's warnings about loss of life and the need for abandonment of the city as "alarmist." He felt they distracted attention from real problems and the need to tackle global warming by reducing emissions into the atmosphere.

Institute studies global warming

THE Stockholm Environment Institute is an independent, international research institute specialising in sustainable development and environment issues.

It was established in 1989 following an initiative by the Swedish Government to develop an international environment/development research organisation.

It says its mission developed from insights gained at the 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, after which the Institute derives its name, and the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development.

It works at local, national, regional and global policy levels, with one of its aims being to place climate change on the world agenda.

It launched a breakthrough report on global warming in the autumn of 1990, quickly generating major concern and proving a catalyst for the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Its research centre at the University of York is one of several around the world.

450 homes hit by 2000 floods

THE most devastating floods of recent times struck York in November 2000, when the River Ouse rose to record levels in the wake of several bouts of heavy rainfall.

About 450 homes in the York area were inundated, including properties in Rawcliffe, Clementhorpe, Fulford and Naburn, but thousands more were saved by defences built after the floods of 1982.

The defences included embankments and flood walls alongside the River Ouse, which protected homes in the Leeman Road and Bootham area, and the Foss Barrier and its associated pumping station, which prevented the Ouse backing up the River Foss and wrecking homes alongside the Foss.

Some concerns were raised about the ability of the defences to hold out - for example that the embankments might eventually give way or that the pumping station's engines might fail - but in the event everything went to plan, and there was no loss of life.

Updated: 10:24 Monday, October 03, 2005