As the bombing of Afghanistan continues, STEPHEN LEWIS looks down the long, bleak road towards regeneration and stability

ARNE Strand is scathing about the US policy of dropping aid parcels into Afghanistan at the same time as bombs. "Peanut butter isn't very popular in Afghanistan," the Norwegian aid worker, who spent nine years in the country, says. "It's solely propaganda. We're saying sorry we're bombing you, but when we're finished we're going to compensate you with a lot of assistance."

The problem with that, he says, is that ordinary Afghans are wary of Westerners promising gifts. During the war against the Soviets, Western military aid was pumped into the country because it was strategically convenient.

Much was promised for once the war was over: but then the West effectively turned its back on Afghanistan. What little aid was sent generally ended up in the hands of the warlords. There were a few 'prestige' projects such as roads and airfields - but they were not what the Afghans really needed and are the very roads and airfields now being bombed.

Arne, who is now studying for his Ph.D at York University's Post-war Reconstruction and Development Unit, admits there probably isn't that much support for the Taliban among ordinary Afghans.

But he says the longer the bombing goes on, the more anger and resentment against the West will crystallise into all-out opposition. He says one of the many villages to have been hit by stray US bombs is the one where he did his field work. He believes eight people were killed - many of whom he knew.

The point is that indiscriminate bombing is hurting the ordinary Afghans more than it is bin Laden or the Taliban elite. Hostility to the West will soon reach such proportions, he says, and that if we do eventually send in troops, they will have not only the Taliban to fight, but ordinary Afghans too.

Arne laments a 'missed opportunity' early in the bombing campaign - the result, he believes, of a cultural misunderstanding.

The Afghans are "probably the most hospitable people on this earth," he says. Any guest has the right to be received, sheltered, fed and protected. It's a hospitality he enjoyed many times. But it makes it difficult for the Taliban to give up bin Laden. Afghans cannot simply 'throw out' unwanted guests.

Instead, a way has to be found of subtly encouraging them to leave. Bin Laden, because of the support he gave Afghanistan in the war against the Soviet Union, has the right to protection by the Afghan people, according to their own traditions, explains Arne.

But when the Taliban signalled to George W Bush that they would 'encourage bin Laden to leave,' it was a clear signal of their intentions, says Arne. Bush, however, simply said it was unacceptable - and the war went on.

That's a tragedy. Not only will the growing resentment of ordinary Afghans make it tougher for US and British soldiers when they do go in - it will also make it that much harder to work with the Afghan people on the reconstruction of the country if the war is ever 'won'.

Such reconstruction will be desperately needed. Arne says Afghanistan is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world.

Something like 85 per cent of the population live in the countryside, subsisting on wheat grown on land watered by a centuries-old system of underground irrigation channels known as 'kareez' and rearing livestock such as sheep, goats and camels.

Years of war and drought have left a destitute population on the verge of starvation.

The way to begin rebuilding the country, says Arne, is not through expensive new roads and government buildings, but to begin from the bottom up, in the countryside.

New crops need to be developed in place of the poppy - preferably strains of wheat that are 'water efficient'.

And instead of digging sophisticated wells that need diesel pumps to function, the existing irrigation systems should be repaired, preferably using local labour.

Then there is the education system - which is virtually non-existent.

During the Soviet era, Arne says, education became associated with communism. Many teachers were killed, others fled overseas. Now, even some elements within the Taliban are beginning to recognise the need for a decently-educated population. The problem is, while a number of schools were built using foreign aid, they are now closed and there are no teachers to put in them.

"It is teachers and teacher education that is needed," he says.

Proper education is vital if the people of Afghanistan are to be able to govern themselves, says Arne.

There must be a return to civilian government, he believes - he is uneasy at the West's co-operation with the Northern Alliance, which is essentially a coalition of warlords - and it should be a government along traditional Afghan lines, with village councils or 'shura', nominating 'people of reputation' for regional and national shura.

Attempts to 'impose' western-style democracy too quickly would only lead to token democracy, with the ballot box being hijacked by the warlords, he says.

All of which means a long-term investment by the West of at least 25 years in helping the country get gradually back to its feet, Arne says. It's a big commitment.

"But it's much better than to just build and rebuild roads that are being destroyed now."

Updated: 10:51 Tuesday, October 30, 2001