TOURISM trade in York could dip by as much as 20 per cent again from next spring, city economists warned today, sparking a row with tourism leaders who dismissed the prediction as "too gloomy."

The city has already taken a 20 per cent loss in business over the past year as a result of rail disruption, the perception of floods, the foot and mouth outbreak and finally the terrorist attacks on the U.S. on September 11.

It could have been worse had York not succeeded in luring UK visitors unable or unwilling to get into the countryside because of foot and mouth; and those daunted from flying abroad after September 11.

But the latest City of York Council quarterly economic bulletin warns that this extra UK trade which helped to compensate for the loss of American visitors, could soon become a lot harder to find - and that would seriously hit the city in its pocket.

Tony Bennett, assistant director of economic development for the City of York, issued the warning in the bulletin which reflects a business survey last November and December, when poor hotel occupancy figures plummeted by 12 or 13 per cent below the previous year's.

He writes: "The real concern is what lies ahead if, as expected, UK residents move back to taking countryside holidays that were missed last year and if they also revert to taking overseas holidays. Recent evidence from travel agents suggests that this is already taking place.

"With the recovery of overseas visitors to the UK likely to take much longer to happen - two to three years - the city could be facing a significant reduction of trade - up to 20 per cent - from spring onwards."

The need was "never more apparent", he says, for the First Stop York tourism partnership to continue monitoring data and trends and to continually develop and upgrade the product offered to visitors.

But Gillian Cruddas, chief executive, of the York Tourism Bureau said: "The prediction is too gloomy. Tourism Bureau members are apprehensive but not pessimistic.

"Retailers are reporting good business levels. It's true that we took a dip in February half-term, which should have been one of our best weeks, but this was a result of cancellations through national media reporting of high water levels in the city."

The strategy was to continue to maintain York's links with the U.S. while concentrating on a drive to lure Europeans, particularly the Dutch, Belgians and Germans.

"There is real awareness of and enthusiasm for York in Europe. We intend to tap into that," said Mrs Cruddas.

Updated: 15:00 Friday, March 08, 2002