BRONZED and beaming, Tony Blair bounded back into Downing Street this week. He should have been relaxed; the PM has spent five weeks with his family soaking up the sun in Southern Italy and the Caribbean.

Only once during the summer did the good ship Government stray into choppy waters: when it was revealed David Blunkett had been conducting an affair with married magazine publisher Kimberly Fortier.

Even then, Deputy PM John Prescott was on hand to snatch back some headlines, plucking an unconscious canoeist from a churning river in Wales. But when Mr Blair stepped back into No 10 the smile may have rapidly faded from his face. He will have found a bulging in-box and the stark knowledge that this is likely to be his toughest year yet in power.

According to political analysts, Governments, and especially Prime Ministers, are regularly having "their biggest crisis ever".

But for once, the clich may prove to be true. The past couple of years have proved gruelling for Blair. The highly-unpopular war in Iraq, with the ongoing loss of young British soldiers, returned again and again to haunt him. Even more demoralising has been the failure to find Saddam's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction.

The Government came under almost unprecedented scrutiny during the Hutton Inquiry into the death of weapons expert Dr David Kelly, then received a rap across the knuckles in the Butler Report for its use of secret service intelligence before the war.

Added to that, Mr Blair has suffered some of the most humiliating backbench rebellions ever endured by a serving Prime Minister.

Even moderate - and ultra-loyal - Labour MPs recoiled sharply at the concept of foundation hospitals and top-up fees for students.

During the crucial vote on tuition fees in February, the Government scraped home by a meagre five votes. Amid calls for his resignation, you sensed Blair was rocking.

Convinced his policies were correct the PM clung on - and he went into summer in a stronger position than even he dreamed likely.

But having scented blood, Labour sharks continue to circle.

Life will not get easier for Blair. The Parliamentary year 2004-05 could be a rocky, albeit defining, one for him.

Difficulties in Iraq persist in the headlines. Many voters are convinced he deceived them over the case for war and, as previous Governments have discovered, voters have long memories.

Hopes that No 10 could build bridges with Labour left-wingers over hospitals and schools are likely to be unfulfilled. He will tell the Labour Party conference that public service reforms should speed up - not slow down.

Britain's rain-lashed summer has played havoc with farms. Blair will face calls to pay farmers emergency grants from taxpayers' money.

A potential clash awaits the PM over the promised ban on fox-hunting. Unless ministers reintroduce the controversial Hunting Bill in the next couple of weeks, a ban cannot be introduced for two years because of archaic parliamentary rules.

Blair will not want to pick another fight with his own side - but nor will he seek to demonise minorities such as country sports enthusiasts.

The PM must also think about carrying out a reshuffle - scrapped in July - after Peter Mandelson dithered over taking the job of European Commissioner, then focus on a potentially disastrous by-election in Mr Mandelson's vacated Hartlepool constituency.

He will also be keeping a close eye on the US presidential election in November.

If his ally, George W Bush, is booted from power in an anti-war protest, things will look stormy for Blair.

And all this with a General Election on the horizon, mooted loosely for next June.

While the Tories remain in disarray, the Government could expect to win a poll. But voters could punish Blair heavily over issues of trust and his perceived slipperiness.

By next summer, a browbeaten PM may be in need of more than five weeks in the sun.

Updated: 09:40 Friday, September 03, 2004