BRITAIN may need to spend up to four times as much on long-term care for the elderly by 2050, according to a report published today by the York-based Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

The soaring bill will come because of an increase in the number of people living into their late 80s and beyond, combined with a rise in the cost of care.

Researchers project that total UK spending on long-term care will rise from about £12.9 billion in 2000 to about £53.9 billion by 2051.

A spokesman for Age Concern in York said today that the figures were not a major surprise, as the demographic trends had been apparent for some time now.

James Player, deputy chief officer for the charity, said there were probably slightly more over-85s in York than the national average, because it was a popular city in whichto retire.

He said the response to the demographic changes should not be to panic about the rising costs of care, but to provide proper support to enable people to remain fit and active for longer in old age.

He also said that as people lived for longer, it was increasingly important that discrimination against older workers did not take place. "People should be allowed to work as long as they want to," he said. The JRF report said the growth in the number of older people in the UK was now expected to be higher than had previously been anticipated, with the number of over 65s expected to rise by 81 per cent over the next five decades from 9.3 million to 16.8 million.

"But growth in the population over 85 - the age group most likely to need nursing, residential or home care - is now expected to rise by 255 per cent from 1.1 million in 2000 to 4 million in 2051."

Foundation director Lord Best said: "The potential for a four-fold increase in spending identified by this report should make politicians and policy makers stop and think carefully.

"We all need to consider what changes could be implemented now if we are to ensure that people now in their 30s, 40s and 50s can be sure of receiving a high standard of care when they need it in old age.

"It is time to reopen the debate."

Updated: 10:11 Wednesday, September 08, 2004