IT IS not the first time we have panicked over a potential global flu pandemic. A few years ago, the alarm concerned the risks of catching a strain of bird flu circulating in south-east Asia.

This time, experts are warning there might be grounds for such fears. The swine flu virus, caused when the H1N1 strain associated with pigs crosses over to the human population, is thought to have killed 152 people in Mexico, with 45 cases confirmed in the US, six in Canada and two in Britain.

There are further suspected infections elsewhere and the World Health Organisation (WHO) has upgraded its state of alert to four, estimating that four-in-ten people in the UK could be infected if the outbreak becomes a pandemic.

However, Prime Minister Gordon Brown has insisted the UK is well placed to tackle the virus because the Government has been preparing for years.

Locally, health chiefs are already taking action.

Dr Peter Brambleby, director of public health for North Yorkshire and York Primary Care Trust (PCT), has implemented the PCT’s pandemic influenza plan.

He is meeting with GPs and health representatives today, discussing advice given to patients and checking staff have protective masks, holding teleconferences and liaising with the Health Protection Unit.

“This is North Yorkshire and York getting itself prepared with a plan that is a culmination of five years’ work,” he said.

“At the moment, at level four, we are in a situation where the virus is circulating in the country of origin from person to person, but not from person to person in other countries.

“We have certain things we need to do, such as getting messages to the public about travelling in and out of the country.

“If, as is a possibility, we go on to level five, which means there are cases circulating in other countries, we escalate up and if it reaches level six, which is a pandemic, we again move up the plan.

“But that would be a substantial hike. We are taking it very seriously, but there is no case for alarm.”

York GPs will formulate plans, too. Dr David Fair, of Jorvik Medical Practice, expects the Department of Health to provide guidelines about antibiotics, quarantining and over-the-counter medicines.

“As far as we know, the cases in countries outside Mexico have been fairly mild flu,” he says. “I think it seems as though it’s almost certainly going to become a global pandemic, which will affect the economic future, put the NHS at a stretch and there will be some mortality, especially among the old.

“However, I’m expecting it’s not going to be a severe form of flu and the mortality rate hopefully should stay low.

“I think the advice to patients is they shouldn’t be alarmed at this stage. They should keep their eye on the news and listen out for further information.”

Plans were previously formulated in case of a pandemic of bird flu, says Dr Fair.

“It was about organising yourself for doing home visits, what sort of advice you would be giving to people about quarantine and about how to cope when half your staff are off sick as well,” he said.

“The staff best to work on the frontline are those who have had flu and come back to work gain as they will have developed immunity.”

Although influenza viruses are common in humans and animals, different strains can cause illness in humans, birds and pigs.

Dr Simon Padfield, consultant in communicable disease control at North Yorkshire and Humber Health Protection Unit, said humans can occasionally become infected with animal viruses through close or direct contact.

“In this situation, the pig virus has now become adapted to humans and the spread is now person to person. Mixing of human and animal influenza viruses can lead to the development of changed viruses with the ability to cause infection and spread in the human population. There may be little or no immunity in the human population to these new viruses.”

Whereas immunity to seasonal human influenza can be boosted by a vaccine, there is not expected to be a jab against swine flu for several months.

However, Dr Fair believes the human flu vaccination could provide some immunity.

Dr Maureen Baker, honorary secretary of the Royal College of GPs, said family doctors should reassure patients that they can expect to recover from flu within a week, even if it is swine flu.

Meanwhile, Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, London, said cases could subside within weeks because the UK was moving out of the normal season for flu infection, but may flare up again after the summer.

Ten per cent of people will suffer coughs or sniffles after a flight, says Dr Brambleby, but if you are worried, phone your GP.

“As there is heightened public awareness of swine flu at the moment, GPs are receiving calls from members of the public who have been to Mexico or other affected areas and feel they may be showing some flu-like symptoms,” he said. “This is perfectly understandable given our current state of alert.

“Where appropriate, samples will be analysed and if cases are confirmed then antiviral drugs will be administered to the individuals and those whom they have been in immediate contact with.”

What to do

ADVICE from Dr Simon Padfield, consultant in communicable disease control at North Yorkshire and Humber Health Protection Unit.

General infection control practices and good respiratory hand hygiene can help to reduce transmission of all viruses. These include:

• Covering your nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing, using a tissue when possible.

• Disposing of dirty tissues promptly and carefully.

• Maintaining good basic hygiene, for example washing hands frequently with soap and water to reduce the spread of the virus from your hands to face or to other people.

• Cleaning hard surfaces (e.g. door handles) frequently using a normal cleaning product.

•Making sure your children follow this advice.

If you have recently visited one of the countries where human cases of influenza have been identified, monitor your health closely for seven days after your return. There is no need to isolate yourself from other people as long as you remain well.

If during this time you develop a feverish illness accompanied by one or more of cough, sore throat, headache and muscle aches, stay at home and contact your GP by phone or seek advice from NHS Direct (0845 4647). Make sure you tell them about your recent travel. Depending on your symptoms you may be advised that further investigations may be necessary.