A Massive opinion poll is predicting a near-wipeout across North and East Yorkshire for the ruling Conservative Party.

According to the poll by Survation, the Conservatives are set to lose York Outer, Scarborough & Whitby, Bridlington and the Wolds, Skipton and Ripon, Wetherby and Easingwold, plus Goole and Pocklington to Labour.

Labour would also retain Selby, which it won in a by-election last August, a former safe seat held by Nigel Adams since 2010.

The Tories would also lose Harrogate and Knaresborough to the Liberal Democrats.


Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would narrowly retain Richmond and Northallerton and Thirsk and Malton’s Kevin Hollinrake would be the only other Conservative survivor in the region.

In its MRP poll of 15,029, Survation showed that if an election were held now the number of Tory s MPs would slump from 348 to 98. The poll, published by the Sunday Times, said Labour would win 468 seats, giving a huge overall majority of 142.

In York Outer, which Conservative Julian Sturdy holds by a 9,985 or 18 per cent majority, Labour’s Luke Charters is predicted to beat Mr Sturdy by 41.9% to 31.5%, with Liberal Democrat Andrew Hollyer coming third on 15.8%.

In Wetherby and Easingwold, which contains rural areas west and north of York, Labour is forecast to win narrowly by 39.3% to 37.5%.

Labour would retain the revised Selby constituency by 39.3% to 31.8%, with Reform third on 13.3%.

York Press: Luke Charters

In Harrogate & Knaresborough, the Liberal Democrats would take the seat on 36.3%, with the Tories on 30.6% and Labour on 23%.

York Outer Labour candidate Luke Charters told the Press: “We are out on the campaign trail in York Outer several times a week, and the atmosphere is very positive for Labour. People want a general election, and they want a Labour government that is fully equipped to fix 14 years of Conservative mess left behind.

“We are taking nothing for granted. The only poll that matters is on polling day. If Labour is to win a majority in 2024 we must continue to spend every day until then working hard to secure support for Labour right across York Outer.”

Thirsk and Malton MP Kevin Hollinrake, a government minister, said: “The poll prediction deliberately and blatantly ignores the significant number of undecided voters, who are key to this and every other election.

"There is much water to flow under the bridge before we get to the only poll that matters and I do believe that there is much economic good news to come before we get there, including higher wages, inflation nearing the 2% target, the impact of lower taxes and lower interest rates.

"I completely understand that some people feel they want a change, this is expected given the country has lived through a pandemic and subsequent economic hardship but we are turning the corner.”