A LEADING York GP has warned about the bleak future facing the NHS - and about the desperate toll the cost of living crisis is taking on ordinary people’s mental and physical health.

Dr David Fair of the Jorvik Medical Practice says people will die of cold this winter because they cannot afford to heat their homes.

And he warns that health waiting times, long waits in A&E and difficulties in seeing a GP will only get WORSE next year, because of the backlog of cases built up during the Covid pandemic and the difficulties in recruiting staff to the health service.

He is also worried about a surge in mental illness this year caused by ‘fear about coping with heating and food bills’.

Dr Fair says many of the problems were foreseeable years ago – and that the government was warned but ‘took no notice’.

In an exclusive column for The Press today that provides a bleak assessment of the future of the NHS, Dr Fair says: “2022 has been the year when living standards for most people in this country have nosedived and there is no expectation of improvement next year either.

“I have seen big increases in mental illness due to fear about coping with heating bills and food bills.

“I frequently see young people terrified about their futures unable to afford rent and with huge student debts and with little prospect of owning a house or earning an adequate wage. “I am fearful of the coming winter when I expect to see people die because they could not afford to keep warm.”

It was only this year that the full extent of the backlog of illness which was put on hold due to the covid pandemic became apparent, Dr Fair adds.

He goes on: “For over a decade the government has been warned about the looming lack of doctors in the UK as a large cohort of senior doctors was moving towards retirement age. “For several years they have been warned about the falling numbers of nurses and allied health professionals because their pay has fallen and the stresses of trying to do a job in impossible circumstances has made them despair.

“The deficiencies will get ever wider as the numbers of staff fall and the demands on them increase further.

“Next year it will become MORE difficult to see a GP… waiting lists will get longer … there will be fewer care home places and waits in A&E will get worse.”

Dr Fair says this was all ‘foreseeable years ago’.

“But it has accelerated partly due to the covid backlog and partly due to the hostile environment which has reduced the numbers of non-UK health and social care workers prepared to work here,” he says. “The government was warned and took no notice, and it seems not to be terribly bothered about it even now.”

There were some good things that came out of the last couple of years, Dr Fair stresses.

The ‘massive improvements’ in vaccination techniques which resulted from the pandemic ‘may well have applications in treating other diseases such as malaria and even cancer’.

“This was the year when it became apparent how advances in vaccine technology have the power to cure previously incurable diseases,” he says.

A Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) spokesperson said the government would be investing up to £14.1 billion over the next two years to address the most pressing issues facing the NHS and social care.

“Covid had a significant impact on the NHS, and we are focused on delivering the biggest catch-up programme in health history – with the NHS having reduced waits of 18 months by 60 per cent in a year and virtually eliminated waits of more than two years," the spokesperson said.

“As of September 2022 there are almost 2,300 more fully time equivalent doctors working in general practice compared to September 2019. There are also record numbers in training and since 2019 we have recruited over 21,000 additional staff into general practice.”