A GOVERNMENT computer model has dramatically scaled back its predictions for flooding from the River Ouse in York.

Early on Sunday evening, the model predicted it would peak at 5.51 metres above normal summer levels, higher than the flood peak of 5.4 metres in November 2000, following heavy and persistent rain in the Dales catchment combined with melting snow.

Then it reduced the predicted peak to 5.21 and late on Sunday evening it said the peak would be only 4.31 metres, which would cause flooding to far fewer properties.

The predictions come with a warning: "Forecasts come from a computer model and can change."

A flood warning issued separately this evening by the Environment Agency  for St George's Field and Queens Staith said levels are rising following recent heavy rain over the upper catchments, and flooding of properties, gardens, roads and paths is possible.

"The current level at the York Viking Recorder is 3.0m and will continue to rise approximately another metre overnight into Monday morning," it said.

"We will update the forecast details as new information becomes available. Further rain is forecast in the upper catchments which will keep levels high through the next few days and a further significant rise is expected. The Foss Barrier has been lowered this afternoon."