THE NHS waiting list in England could rise to 14 million by autumn next year and keep increasing, a new report has warned.

If millions of patients who did not receive care during the pandemic return to the health service for medical attention, then the number joining the waiting list could outstrip the number being treated, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said.

The research organisation has done modelling in an effort to show the potential scale of the waiting list challenge ahead.

Last month, York and Scarborough Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust said it had cut the number of patients waiting more than a year for treatment by 42 per cent since February.

A spokesperson admitted that the ongoing pandemic did have an impact on the trust’s capacity to deliver services in the way it had previously.

“Subsequently waiting times are longer than we would normally expect,” they said. “However, we have already made significant progress.”

In April, 2,473 people had been waiting more than 52 weeks for treatment and 528 had waited for more than a year and a half in the trust's area.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid has said dealing with the waiting lists is "one of my top priorities".

The IFS estimates its most optimistic modelling would require the NHS to increase capacity by five per cent in 2021 and 2022 and 10 per cent in 2023 at a cost of at least £2 billion.

That would mean waiting lists of more than nine million next year and not returning to pre-pandemic levels until 2025.

Max Warner, a research economist at the IFS and an author of the analysis, said: "More than four million people were on an NHS waiting list even before the pandemic.

"Covid-19 has only made matters worse, as millions of people have missed out on treatment and millions more haven't even been referred onto the waiting list to begin with.

"There is a real risk that if the NHS cannot find effective ways to boost its capacity - a challenge at the best of times, let alone after a major pandemic - then much longer waiting lists will be with us for years to come."

Labour's Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth said: "This analysis should be a wake-up call for ministers.

"It's unacceptable that so many patients are waiting longer in pain and distress for vital treatment including cancer care. Hundreds of thousands are waiting over a year for operations and some are even waiting over two years risking their long-term health.

"Years of underfunding and cuts to healthcare had already left our NHS with ballooning waiting lists before the pandemic hit. Given these warnings it's now even more urgent that a long term rescue plan is put in place to give the NHS the resources and staff it needs to bring down waiting lists and reducing waiting times for treatment."