A crazy summer

WE'VE had wet summers before, but this one is different.

First there is the sheer volume of rain that has fallen - last month, when so many local communities were devastated by floods, was the wettest recorded by weather observers at Askham Bryan College, York.

Then there is the suddenness of the changes in weather that is making us all so rattled. One moment, the skies will be a perfect summery blue, with a few fleecy clouds.

The next, they will be as dark as night, rain and even hail lashing down, and thunder and lightning rolling around the heavens.

Following a ferocious squall of rain and hail yesterday lunchtime, Windsor Drive, in Wigginton, York, briefly resembled a river rather than a suburban road, with cars driving along creating bow waves.

In nearby Haxby, gardens were flooded and at least one resident had to bale out their drive after a pumping station was apparently unable to cope with the volume of rain that fell.

Over in Filey, meanwhile, dozens of people had to be evacuated following flash floods.

The persistent squally rain leaves those living in communities such as Pocklington and Pickering, which were recently devastated by floods, anxiously watching the skies and checking water levels in becks and streams.

In Elvington, villagers are getting used to having the main road open again, after it was closed for two weeks. But water levels in the beck are still high, according to Ian Bailey, of the parish council - and they are also stagnant. "So they are somewhat smelly!"

What villagers are most worried about is the beck bursting its banks again.

"It came up on Tuesday in the heavy rain," Mr Bailey said. "And there is more heavy rain forecast over the next couple of days. It is very close to bursting its banks again."

Pocklington mayor Richard Bryon has also been keeping an anxious weather eye on water levels. The local beck "seems to be flowing okay" for now, he said. But locals are watching it. "It just cannot take this amount of water."

In Pickering, every dark cloud has people looking anxiously skywards, says Howard Keal, Ryedale councillor and Pickering flood defence group spokesman.

"It is very easy to become very nervous very quickly when three to four feet of water have recently swept through your living room," he said.

The weather has hit local businesses which need a decent summer to make a living.

The opening of York's Maize Maze, which was scheduled for Saturday, has now had to be put off for a week, which owner Tom Pearcy says will cost tens of thousands of pounds in lost revenue.

"Where we are is actually a very dry site," he said. "We're on a hill so the water usually rolls off quite easily.

"But this year there's been no let up. We would normally have cut the pathway to the maze about four weeks ago but this year we were only able to do it last week. The car park is on grass and that is sodden as well."

Tom hopes temporary roadways will make car parking easier when he opens on July 28.

"We're praying for an Indian summer so we can open later than usual in September," he added.

That, sadly, doesn't look likely.

Weather forecasters at MeteoGroup UK don't do long-range weather predictions.

But forecaster Rachel Vince warned the "sustained period of unsettled weather" we have been experiencing in Yorkshire was not going to be changing any time soon.

There are expected to be a scattering of showers today, more rain and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening, and rain again on Saturday.

Sunday will be better - but there will be more rain next week.

"Looking through next week to ten days or so ahead, the unsettled pattern will continue," Rachel said. "It looks like summer will be on hold for a little while yet."

So what is causing this unprecedented weather?

It is connected to the jet stream, an air current in the upper atmosphere that runs from west to east across the north Atlantic towards Europe, Rachel says.

Normally, this passes across Scandinavia, far to the north of Britain. But at the moment it has moved south, and is directly over the UK.

It is blocking the Azores High, an area of high pressure over the Azores islands that usually brings drier, sunnier weather to the UK at this time of year.

That has seen much of southern Europe enjoying warm, dry weather, Rachel says - but we are missing out.

And why has the jet stream moved south?

Rachel isn't about to blame climate change. "The jet stream just does that every now and then," she said.

Phil Brighton, a met observer at Askham Bryan College, is less fastidious.

"A lot of people say it is the greenhouse effect, climate change," he said. "I think we can say it is climate change, but we cannot say it is a purely greenhouse effect."

It may be partly down to climate change, in other words - but he isn't commenting on how much of that change has been caused by human activity.

Whatever the causes of the recent weird weather, Phil has been enjoying it.

Last month, was not only the wettest June ever recorded by staff at Askham Bryan, it was the wettest month ever recorded, he says. More than 213mm of rain fell - three times the average amount for June. On June 14 alone, an astonishing 57mm of rain fell at Askham Bryan.

Already this month, we are on track form another very wet month. By yesterday, just over half way through the month, we had already had 106mm of rain.

"It is quite extraordinary - quite unprecedented," Phil said excitedly.

Even though he wasn't at work on Tuesday, he was out taking measurements. "It was a really strange day," he said. There were some wonderful cloud formations, he said, which he spent a good two hours studying - and then rainstorms all afternoon.

He didn't see anything that resembled a twister, but given the way those cloud formations had built up, it wouldn't at all have surprised him if someone in the York area did, he said.

"We've got cold air over warm air," he said. "Everything this year seems to be topsy-turvy. We're going from one extreme to another."

It might be a weatherman's dream, but the rest of us had better batten down our hatches for a while yet.

Freakish weather...

July, 2007: Downpours are still causing problems throughout York, with Race For Life on York's Knavesmire being put off for a second time. Two centimetres of rain fell on York between Sunday and Monday - the equivalent of about ten days' worth in a normal month.

June, 2007: The wettest month ever recorded by observers at Askham Bryan College. Torrential rain caused floods around the region. Dozens of shops and pubs closed in Pocklington, above, and Pickering, while the water rose to two feet deep in parts of Elvington.

January, 2007: The River Ouse rose to 4.4 metres - just a metre short of the record-breaking levels of 2000.

December, 2006: The hottest December since 1988.

September, 2006: The hottest September on record.

July, 2006: Tropical thunder storms hit York, a mini tornado tore up trees in Wilberfoss and there was flash flooding in Malton and Pickering. The hottest July and the hottest month ever on record.

How we compare: July weather around the world

NEPAL: At least 21 people died after heavy rains triggered a landslide and swept away six houses in the western district of Baglung.

HAWAII: Drought conditions and a spate of bush fires.

QATAR: High winds of up to 35 knots have forced fishing crews to stay on shore for three days.

AUSTRALIA: Victoria has been covered by snow and Melbourne is bracing itself for a thunderstorm, hailstones and high winds.

CYPRUS: An approaching forest fire fanned by strong winds forced the evacuation of two villages in the south of the Troodos mountains.

FLORIDA: Lightning set a Baptist church alight in a fierce storm, which tore pieces out of neighbouring properties.

NEW ZEALAND: Roads have been flooded and severe frosts left road surfaces hazardous, with drivers having to smash through icicles hanging from the roofs of tunnels.

HONG KONG: High temperatures saw 80 elderly people hospitalised suffering from conditions such as heatstroke.

INDIA: More than 40,000 people have been forced away from their homes after flash floods hit almost 120 villages in the eastern district of Dhemaji.

ARGENTINA: Snow fell in Buenos Aires for the first time in almost 90 years on July 10.

PERU: Cold snaps killed 55 children under five as temperatures dropped to as low as minus 20 Celsius.

GREECE: A heatwave saw temperatures as high as 43C and parts of Athens deserted as people tried to escape the heat.

CHINA: Lightning strikes and mud flows sparked by record-breaking torrential rains killed at least 15 people in western China this week.

Long range forecast: the weather 50 years from now

FRIENDS Of The Earth campaigner Mary Taylor says we will see dramatic changes to the UK's climate in our life time.

"In the future we will probably have heatwaves again and droughts; particularly in the South of England," she said. "It's still going to be very variable and there will probably be flash floods."

How the weather will be in July 2057 remained to be seen, she said. But how we manage climate change will undoubtedly affect it.

"It could be that if we don't tackle climate change the ice caps could be melting more quickly, we could see more flooding and more surges on the coast. We could be seeing heatwaves and drought and flash floods and that's just in the UK.

"Other parts of the world could be absolutely catastrophic."

African farmers may not be able to farm any more, people in Bangladesh may have to migrate in search of land and tourism in places such as Spain could be severely affected, she says.

Mary confessed climate change kept her awake at night.

"It's very worrying and I really think we're wasting a huge amount of time and we're not getting to grips with it," she said.

"To think polar bears could become extinct in our life time is worrying and there are huge threats to other species too."