THE largely rural Thirsk and Malton constituency has had a Conservative MP since it was created in 2010.

With sitting MP Anne McIntosh deselected by her party last year, the seat is being fought by Easingwold-based estate agency boss Kevin Hollinrake, who is facing opponents in the form of serving district councillors Di Keal and John Clark - for the Liberal Democrat and Liberal parties respectively.

Other candidates are the Labour party's Alan Avery, the Green's Chris Newsam, UKIP's Toby Horton and independent candidate Philip Tate.

The constituency is one of the largest - geographically - in England, covering Thirsk, Malton, Filey, Pickering, Helmsley and Kirkbymoorside, and taking in parts of the North York Moors National Park.

Its population is older than many parts of the country, with nearly 25 percent of the population aged over 65 - higher than the national average of around 18 percent.

Employment levels are high, and unemployment for over 16s at just 2.9 percent is significantly lower than the national average of around six percent.

Key issues in the election fight are likely to be rural and farming matters - former MP Anne McIntosh chaired an influential commons committee on the environmental, food, and farming; as well as housing and transport problems faced by the sparsely population rural area.

Fracking too is a hotly contested matter in the area, with exploration drilling by energy firms prompting protests across the area.


THE University of York’s Professor Neil Carter gives an expert view of what May 7 could hold for Thirsk and Malton.

Thirsk and Malton is a very safe Conservative seat: Anne McIntosh won it in 2010 with a majority of 11,281.

It started to look interesting last year when, after bitter warfare within the local Conservative Party, McIntosh was deselected, and toyed briefly with the idea of running as an independent candidate against her replacement, Kevin Hollinrake.

Although she eventually decided against doing so, there may yet be some fall-out amongst voters. The Liberal Democrats, who came second last time, might hope to benefit.

Back in 1986 Elizabeth Shields won the old seat of Ryedale in a famous by-election. But these are difficult times for the Lib Dems and, confusingly for voters, their candidate, Di Keal, is also up against a Liberal Party candidate, John Clark, who came last in 2010.

Instead, it may be to UKIP, whose candidate, Toby Horton, is also standing here again, that disaffected Conservatives gravitate. Or perhaps to the Labour candidate, Alan Avery, an ex-Army officer whose background might appeal in an area where the pickings are normally thin for his party.

The Green candidate, Chris Newsam, will hope to benefit from the so-called ‘Green surge’, but he will have to persuade potential supporters against voting for the independent candidate, Philip Tate, who is campaigning on one simple ‘green’ message – no fracking in North Yorkshire. However, no one should bet against the Conservatives winning this seat very easily.