IN a quiet room in a stately country pile near York, a former army general is locked in discussion with York’s Lord Mayor Dave Taylor about the consequences of a flu pandemic.

You should never underestimate the risk of flu, Michael Charlton-Weedy, the former general, tells the Lord Mayor. The pandemic of 1918/ 19 killed many more people than the First World War itself. And the people who died weren’t always the ones you’d expect.

“The highest deaths in 1918 were young, fit men,” he says. “That was because the H1N1 virus overstimulated the immune response. Young, fit people have a very effective immune response.” He pauses. “The highest casualty rates were among young policemen. They had lots of exposure, and they were reasonably fit.”

It is quite possible that the world will face another flu pandemic. In fact, such a pandemic is right at the top of the UK Government’s National Risk Register of possible civil emergencies – above terrorist attacks, flooding, widespread power failure and pollution.

Flu pandemics are natural phenomena that have occurred repeatedly over the centuries, the register says. “The consensus view among experts is that there is a high probability of another influenza pandemic occurring. It is impossible to forecast its timing or the nature of the impact.”

It may well be impossible to forecast the impact – that would depend on which of the myriad strains of flu was involved. But that isn’t going to stop Cllr Taylor putting Mr Charlton-Weedy on the spot.

What might be the consequences of a pandemic? he asks, the wings of his hair standing at full attention.

In the worst-case scenario, hundreds of thousands of people could die, Mr Charlton-Weedy says. “In the UK.”

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Flu pandemic is the top peactime threat facing the UK, according to the Cabinet Office's National Risk Register

That doesn’t mean all policemen should start urgently looking for another job – any future flu pandemic is likely to have very different characteristics from that which followed the First World War.

But it does mean that as a nation – and as local communities – we need to be prepared for the worst. Which is where Mr Charlton-Weedy comes in.

He’s the director of the Cabinet Office’s department for “UK resilience training” – which in practice means he’s the top civil servant in charge of the Hawkhills emergency planning college near Easingwold.

The York civic party – Cllr Taylor, Lady Mayoress Susan Ridley, Sheriff of York Jonathan Tyler and Sheriff’s Lady Brenda Tyler – have been invited to have a look around The Hawkhills. And The Press has tagged along.

There’s still a slight air of mystery about The Hawkhills. This is a legacy of the establishment’s past – the pre-war days when it operated as an anti-gas training centre, or the Cold War period when it helped plan for a nuclear attack and its work was highly classified.

Those days are long gone, however. Today, The Hawkhills is a training college, nothing more – albeit one that comes under the direct control of the Cabinet Office, and which trains people to deal with every possible disaster, both natural and man-made: everything from floods and pandemic flu to terrorist attacks, power failures and even crowd control.

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The York civic party with Mr Charlton-Weedy at Hawkhills

It is so far from being a top secret establishment these days that, since 2010, it has actually been privatised. A small team of civil servants under Mr Charlton-Weedy remains in overall charge. But those training courses are offered by the Serco Group, and the centre is also used to host conferences and even weddings.

The facilities have also been radically modernised. Doom City, the huge mock-up of a bomb-damaged town in the grounds behind the main house where training was once given in how to drag bodies from bomb-damaged buildings and deal with the aftermath of a nuclear attack, is long gone.

Since Mr Charlton-Weedy arrived in 2003, the remaining World War II buildings have been removed, and modern conference and teaching facilities put up in their place.

The new “student accommodation” set in the house’s grounds is more like a modern hotel. “It could be operated as a Travel Lodge,” says Mr Charlton-Weedy, showing us around.

The main Georgian and Victorian house is still there – complete with a magnificent Victorian grand staircase. But behind it are fully-equipped modern training and seminar rooms.

It is here that every year 6,500 people – local government officials, members of the emergency services, businesses and charities – come to learn how to respond to disaster. Their training covers everything from floods, pandemics or terrorist attacks to dealing with major road accidents, the risk of large-scale power failures – and how to handle large crowds.

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Tacked to a noticeboard: details of ongoing training courses...

Whatever the nature of the disaster, the essential principles governing the way we respond are the same, Mr Charlton-Weedy says.

The UK may be comparatively small – but there would be a bewildering range of agencies involved in responding to any major emergency. There are 43 difference police forces in England and Wales alone; 174 county or unitary councils; dozens of fire brigades; ten individual ambulance trusts in England.

Ensuring all those work together requires a proper management structure – and that’s exactly what we have in the bronze, silver and gold command system. These bring together local government and emergency services personnel at different tiers.

Bronze command would handle operations at the very local level, on the scene; silver would operate at the area level – at the level of York the city – while gold would operate at the county level.

The essential approach to responding to a crisis is always bottom-up, Mr Charlton-Weedy says: with local commanders responding to quickly changing events and calling for help from higher-level commanders as required. At the very highest level is COBRA, the Cabinet Office’s emergency briefing room, which would co-ordinate the emergency response at the national level, and respond to local requests for help.

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Man from the Ministry: Michael Charlton-Weedy at Hawkhills

The point of preparing for such emergencies – and so the point of the training that Hawkhills provides – is to ensure that when the crunch comes, people know what they are doing, and who they will be working with and reporting to. The main priority would be to respond quickly and effectively. “It’s about going in there, going big, and getting it sorted.”

It is also vitally important to think things through in advance, and try to prepare for different contingencies.

In the event of a major disaster, for example, hospitals may well be vital. So it is important to ensure that doctors and nurses remain able to get in to work.

But not only doctors and doctors. “We have to think about how we keep hospitals running,” Mr Charlton-Weedy says. “So we get the surgeons in, of course. But what about the cleaners? Without the cleaners, the operating theatres will be closed.”

You can bet that whatever happens, things won’t go entirely according to any prearranged plan. But it is much better to have a plan in place and be ready to adapt it, than to have no plan at all, Mr Charlton-Weedy says. Preparation is all.

Thanks to the efforts of The Hawkhills, civil defence teams across the country are as well prepared for disaster as they could be.

HISTORY OF THE HAWKHILLS

The Hawkhills was a private house until the 1930s. Then, with the Second World War looming and fear of gas attacks growing, it was bought by the Ministry of Works to become a Home Office “anti-gas school”.

At the end of the war it became first a Home Office police training school then, in 1948 with the Cold War looming, a civil defence school which focused on how to deal with the aftermath of a nuclear attack.

With the Cold War over, its role shifted again. There had been a number of major incidents – Lockerbie, Hillsborough, the Bradford Football Stadium fire – and Hawkhills evolved to become an Emergency Planning College training people how to prepare for peacetime disasters.

In the early 2000s, it was transferred to the Cabinet Office, and was privatised in 2010 – but continues to this day to train people from across the UK and around the world in how to respond to disaster.

THE KEY RISKS FACING BRITAIN
The Cabinet Office's national risk register identifies the potential civil emergency risks facing the UK, and ranks them in terms of the threat they pose.

The top risk at the moment is a flu pandemic.

Such pandemics have occurred regularly for centuries, the register says. Some affect mainly birds or livestock - but others spread to people. It is impossible to forecast the timing or impact of a pandemic, the register says. But, in the event of a severe pandemic, the consequences could be appalling. "Half the UK population potentially (could be) infected, with between 20,000 and 750,000 additional deaths potentially by its end."

The other top risks identified in the register are:

Coastal flooding

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"Rising temperatures... and sea level changes associated with climate change are likely to increase the severity of weather events," the national risk register says. The register refers to the 'worst tidal surge in 60 years' which battered the east coast from Yorkshire down to Kent at the end of 2013, requiring thousands of people to be evacuated. The potential consequences of severe flooding in future, it adds, could include deaths and injuries, damage to property and infrastructure, interruption of supplies and services, and environmental damage.

Widespread electricity failure

The UK has never suffered a national loss of electricity, and while a total system shutdown is still regarded as unlikely, even localised power losses could have a severe impact. Severe weather is thought to be the most likely cause, and the consequences could include deaths and injuries, plus major disruption to services, supplies and transport

Terrorist attacks

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The UK faces a 'serious and sustained' risk of terrorist attacks, such as this in a residential neighborhood of Homs, Syria in 2016

The UK faces a 'serious and sustained' risk of terrorist attack, the register says. These could take various forms - attacks on crowded places; attacks on power stations; attacks on airports, railway stations or underground lines; even biological attacks.

Newly emerging risks include:

Air pollution

The UK's air quality is generally better now than in previous decades, the register says - but there remains a real risk of localised, short-term 'poor air quality events', particularly during heatwaves.

Antibiotic resistance

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Antibiotic resistance is a growing threat. Pictured: Staphylococcus aureus bacteria

Antibiotic resistance is an 'increasingly serious issue', the register says. "Without effective antiobiotics, even minor surgery and routine operations could become high-risk procedures. Much of modern medicine (for example organ transplantation, bowel surgery and some cancer treatments) may become unsafe due to the risk of infection. Influenza pandemics would become more serious without effective treatments."