ANALYSIS: Which way is transport in York really going?

And they need to be taken into account when cities like York develop their traffic plans, says York Civic Trust.

This week, the Trust will be holding two 'transport policy workshops' at the Friends Meeting House which will focus on how York can go about developing a long-term transport strategy.

Professor Tony May, a retired Leeds University professor of transport engineering who is a member of the Trust's planning committee, has produced a 'briefing paper' for the workshops with his Leeds University colleague Prof Greg Marsden.

It identifies transport trends and also looks at how technology - such as smartphones and electric cars - will change the way we travel in future.

About 100 Trust members will take part in the two workshops, on Thursday evening and Friday morning. They aim to:

• identify the main transport problems York will face over the next 15 years
• identify transport priorities for York over that period -
• produce a list of possible transport measures -
• discuss how these might be implemented.

Afterwards, the Trust will produce a report which will ultimately be used to try to help influence decision-making in York, says chief executive David Fraser. The workshop won't be about coming up with expensive dream schemes, however, Mr Fraser says. It will be about looking for practical, realisable solutions to help make York a better place in which to live and work.

The future? Use of electric cars will grow sharply by 2030

The workshops have been given the seal of approval by Cllr Ian Gillies, the city council's executive member for transport and planning.

The city council doesn't have all the answers, he admits, and is always ready to listen to the informed views of other organisations. "We all use the roads," he says. "And clearly there are things we can do better."

Prof May's briefing paper will form the starting point for the discussions.

It makes for fascinating reading. Here are some of the key points it makes...

TRANSPORT TRENDS

Changes in car use

The number of young people applying for driving licences over the last 10 years has begun to fall - and those young people who do drive have been driving less. "This has been attributed to a range of factors such as rising insurance costs, falling disposable income and greater urbanisation," Prof May says.

People who live alone are more likely to have a car of their own than those living in larger families. But if there are decent alternative transport options, they are less likely to own a car.

Between 2001 and 2011, car use for commuting within York fell by 10 per cent, while public transport, walking and cycling rose 10 per cent. More recently, Park & Ride use, bus use and walking have risen by about 2 per cent a year, while cycling and general traffic levels have remained static.

However, while fewer than half of people who both live and work in York get to work by car, 80 per cent of those coming from outside do so. Commuting to York by car from Leeds, and Selby rose by 37 per cent,and 28 per cent respectively between 2001 and 2011.

The growth of vans Another area of traffic growth is 'light goods vehicles'. Across the UK, such traffic is growing at a rate of about 5 per cent a year. "Some of this can be attributed to the significant increases in on-line shopping and also business to business exchanges," says Prof May. "There is also an increase in domestic servicing such as cleaning and dog walking."

CHANGES IN THE WAY WE WILL TRAVEL IN FUTURE

There way we travel will change between now and 2030, partly because of smartphone technology

Most people now have smartphones. And recent advances in GPS technology and smartphone payment will have a big influence on the way we get around in future, Prof May says.

Smartphones will have a big impact on the way we travel

Uber, for example, makes use of the latest technology to match taxi users to drivers in real-time. "This will very quickly become an expectation for quality and responsiveness," Prof May says. Such technology also makes sharing car club vehicles easier (such as, for example, with the Enterprise Car Club in York) and is beginning to be used with bus ticketing. It also makes the idea of an integrated travel network easier.

In Birmingham and Helsinki, Prof May says, a new transport app known as WHIM is being trialled. It brings together all your transport options at the touch of a key, using one payment process.

"You type in where you want to go from and to, it works out the options, you select your preferred choice and it books and resolves payment," Prof May says. The app also provides walking maps to bus stops or pick up points - and even learns your preferred choices. "Whilst in its infancy now, such a way of getting around is likely to be fairly widespread by 2030. The implications for a city like York could be significant given the fairly tight geography."

Electric buses, cars and bikes

These have major advantages in terms of reducing city centre pollution - and all the evidence suggests that by 2030, they will be becoming far more popular, Prof May says.

While only about 1 per cent of new vehicles bought today are Ultra Low Emission, that is going to rise steeply. "One might anticipate 30 to 40 per cent of new cars being electric by 2030," Prof May says. The range for electric vehicles is already quite good - around 220 miles per charge for some models. "However, there will need to be a change in the provision of rapid charge points," Prof May says.

Electric bikes could also be a big part of the future for a small city like York. These can 'support cycling at up to 15mph making most edge of York to centre journey times potentially of the order of 20 minutes,' Prof May says.

Former Lord Mayor Julie Gunnell trying out an electric bike in York in 2013

It won't all be plain sailing, however. The city council wanted electric buses to be introduced on all six Park&Ride routes in York - but no bus companies tendered for the new contract

Shared transport

There has been a lot of media attention given to 'driverless' cars. But actually, a bigger change is likely to be an increase in shared transport, Prof May says. At the moment, if you join a car club you still have to return the vehicle to the point where you picked it up. But perhaps not for much longer. "BMW already run a DriveNow system of one way car rental where you can leave the car in a range of places. In addition, many cities have shared central area bike hire schemes for final mile journeys and for tourists."

TRANSPORT PLANNING

Since the year 2000, local authorities have been required to produce Local Transport Plans, or LTPs. York is now on its third (see panel). Since 2010, local authorities have been given a freer hand in the production of the LTPs, as part of the government's 'localism' agenda. The York LTP does, however, have to be produced as part of a wider regional approach to transport planning, for example through the Leeds City Region.

The approach to transport planning has changed in another way, says Prof May. Whereas in the past, it was about building new roads and cycle paths and then trying to manage the way they were used (for example through traffic lights), now it is much more complex.

Development is carefully planned so as to reduce the need to travel and to make walking, cycling and bus services more appealing. Information technology is used to track the way we travel and to monitor traffic delays. And smart technology can also be used to make sharing cars, bicycles and taxis easier. Councils have also adopted what transport experts call “nudge” techniques to encourage residents to consider alternative means of travel and to promote school and workplace travel plans.

Good for air quality: Cllr Ian Gillies, Mark Bichtemann of First York and Robert Drewery of Optare with an electric bus

Many of these have been seen in York in recent years - just look at the city council's i-Travel (which stands for intelligent travel) scheme, which this month won a further £1.3 million of Department for Transport funding.

But too many cities are still over-reliant on old-fashioned ideas, and tend to focus unconventional transport solutions. As a result, there is a risk that innovative transport options might be overlooked - and ultimately money wasted, Prof May says.

THE CITY COUNCIL'S LOCAL TRANSPORT PLAN

The city council has now produced three local transport plans. The latest, the LTP3, is designed to cover the period between now and 2031. However, it is designed to be 'reviewed and adjusted' on a regular basis, to account for changes in population growth, technology and forms of transport. Hence the civic trust's workshops.

The council's LTP3 plan sets out a number of key aims, as well as measures designed to help meet them.

AIMS

To encourage people to consider alternatives to the car, such as walking, cycling and taking the bus To improve transport links, ie by means of footpaths and cycle lanes linking where people live with where they work, and through better rail services and connections To reduce vehicle emissions and improve air quality To reduce the number of cars in the city centre and make public streets and spaces safer and more pleasant.

PROSED MEASURES

Short-term:

• more 'bus priority measures'
• better bus stops and bus information
• multi-operator tickets and smart ticketing
• hybrid bus and taxi fleets
• improved footpaths and cycle lanes
• extended pedestrian zones
• more Park&Rides sites
• recharging points for electric vehicles

Medium term:

• review inner ring road
• allow public transport only over Ouse Bridge

Long term:

• a Haxby railway station
• a new city centre footbridge
• a freight transshipment centre to reduce the number of delivery lorries coming into York